The Rogue Valley Association of Realtors is sponsoring an event with Lawrence Yun, the NAR economist, in April,so I thought I should write something about the economy. You should plan to attend Yun’s presentation as he makes economics interesting and relevant to the real estate business. Now my two bits…
In the next few days, the super bowl will be over and there will be a winner. So I am going to use the super bowl indicator (SBI) to predict the future of the housing economy. Since the first Super Bowl in 1967, when Green Bay Packers whipped the Kansas City Chiefs, 35-10, the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor has been an astonishingly accurate indicator of stock market direction for the rest of the year. The theory holds that when a team from the original National Football League wins the championship, stocks rise. When a team from the now-defunct American Football League wins, that's bearish.
The Super Bowl Indicator (SBI) has been on the money 32 years out of 40, which represents a success rate of 80%. Between 1967 and 1997 it was accurate 28 times out of 31 (a better than 90% average); it then hit the skids, going 0-4 between 1998 and 2001, but rebounded by being correct 4 years out of 5 between 2002 and 2007.
So if the Colts (NFC) win against the Saints (AFC) then look forward to housing sales rising in the Ashland & Medford area in the next year, but for real economic information, plan on attending April 23, 2010 with Lawrence Yun!
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